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- Gold attracts some sellers for the second straight day, though the downside seems limited.
- Rising geopolitical risks and dovish Fed-led USD weakness could support the precious metal.
- Traders might also opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial US NFP report on Friday.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its descending trend for the second straight day and drops to a three-day low, around the $4,415 area, heading into the European session on Thursday. In the absence of any relevant fundamental catalyst, the downtick could be attributed to some profit-taking ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial data could offer more cues about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
In the meantime, the growing acceptance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs two more times fails to assist the US Dollar (USD) in capitalizing on its weekly gains registered over the past two days. Furthermore, a slight deterioration in the resilient global risk sentiment and rising geopolitical tensions could offer some support to the safe-haven Gold. This, in turn, warrants some caution for aggressive XAU/USD bears and before positioning for deeper losses. Traders now look forward to the US Initial Jobless Claims data for short-term trading opportunities.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls largely shrug off dovish Fed bets and geopolitical risks
- The initial market reaction to the shocking US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend seems to have faded, prompting some follow-through profit-taking in Gold for the second straight day on Thursday. However, a combination of factors might hold back the XAU/USD bears from placing aggressive bets and help limit losses.
- US President Donald Trump threatened that Colombia and Mexico could face US military action as part of a widening campaign against criminal networks and regional instability. Adding to this, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled no retreat from the President’s aim to take over Greenland, and Trump retained the option to address the objective by military means.
- Moreover, the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, unrest in Iran, and issues surrounding Gaza keep geopolitical risks in play, which could support the safe-haven precious metal. This, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs in March and deliver another rate cut later this year, might help limit losses for the commodity.
- On the economic data front, the Institute for Supply Management reported an unexpected pickup in the US services sector activity in December, with its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 54.4 from 52.6 in November. The upbeat reading, however, was largely offset by a duo of rather unimpressive US labor market reports.
- According to the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute, private-sector employment in the US rose by 41,000 in December against the 29,000 fall (revised from -32,000) in November and the 47,000 expected. Separately, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that the number of job openings fell to 7.146 million in November.
- Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets as the focus remains glued to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. The crucial employment details would influence market expectations about the Fed’s policy path, which will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
- In the meantime, Thursday’s release of the usual Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data could produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD later during the North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further losses.
Gold seems vulnerable as intraday break below $4,430-4,425 confluence comes into play
From a technical perspective, the $4,425 confluence – comprising the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up – could offer some support to the Gold price. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD pair to the $4,400 mark. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits below the Signal line and below zero as the histogram expands negatively, pointing to strengthening bearish momentum.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 is neutral-to-bearish and slipping, underscoring constrained upside. Immediate recovery attempts would face the 23.6% Fibo. retracement level, around the $4,450 region. Failure to reclaim that barrier would keep rebounds capped, while a sustained hold above the 38.2% level could stabilize the tone; a break beneath it would extend the correction despite the rising SMA.
