Gold faces rejection near $4,900 as bets for less dovish Fed counter supporting factors

• Gold attracts strong dip buyers on Friday following an Asian session decline to a four-day low.
• A turnaround in the risk sentiment and Fed rate cut bets act as a tailwind for the precious metal.
• The USD preserves its recent strong recovery gains and limits the upside for the XAU/USD pair.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a goodish intraday recovery move from the vicinity of mid-$4,600s, or a four-day low, and faces rejection near the $4,900 mark amid mixed cues. A turnaround in the global risk sentiment drives flow toward traditional safe-haven assets and acts as a tailwind for the commodity. Furthermore, bets on more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, bolstered by signs of weakness in the US job market, turn out to be other factors supporting the non-yielding yellow metal.

Adding to this, the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) selling provides an additional lift to the precious metal. Meanwhile, the White House said that diplomacy is US President Donald Trump’s first choice for dealing with Iran, though it warned that he has military options at his disposal. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and further underpins the safe-haven Gold. However, expectations that the incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, will be less dovish might cap the non-yielding yellow metal, warranting some caution for bullish traders.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls seem hesitant as less dovish Fed bets counter safe-haven flows, USD downtick

• Asian stocks extended losses into a second day as a selloff on Wall Street intensified amid a global rout in tech equities. Adding to this, prospects for lower interest rates in the US assist the non-yielding Gold to reverse an Asian session slide to the $4,655 area on Friday.
• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will deliver at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. The bets were reaffirmed by this week’s US data, which pointed to weakness in the labor market.
• The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute reported on Wednesday that private-sector employers added 22K new jobs in January. This marked a notable decline from the previous month’s downwardly revised reading of 37K and missed estimates of a 48K rise.
• Adding to this, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Thursday revealed that the number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 6.542 million, compared to the previous month’s downwardly revised print of 6.928 million.
• Furthermore, the US Department of Labor reported that the number of citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 231K for the week ending January 31 from the previous week’s 209K. The reading was also higher than estimates for a rise to 212K.
• Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh as his nominee for the Fed Chair if he had expressed a desire to hike interest rates. Trump added that there was not much doubt that the US central bank would lower rates.
• The White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that diplomacy is Trump’s first choice for dealing with Iran, and he will wait to see whether a deal can be struck at high-stakes talks on Friday amid differences over the agenda, keeping geopolitical risks in play.
• Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations. This, along with comments from influential FOMC members, would drive USD demand and the XAU/USD pair.

Gold might struggle to capitalize on the solid intraday recovery amid mixed setup

The overnight failure to build on momentum beyond the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart favors bearish traders. The subsequent fall, however, finds decent support near the 200-period SMA, warranting some caution. Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA remains above the 200-period SMA, which continues to rise, sketching a mixed backdrop and keeping a consolidative bias within the broader uptrend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holds below the Signal line near the zero level. Its negative but contracting histogram suggests fading bearish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 45 (neutral). Near-term traction would improve on a close back above the 50-period SMA at 5,026.76, with that level acting as initial resistance, whereas failure to stabilize risks a drift toward the 200-period SMA at 4,691.87, which serves as dynamic support.

A MACD move back above the Signal line and into positive territory, alongside an RSI break through 50, would bolster the recovery; otherwise, momentum remains capped, and price could continue consolidating between these averages.

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