The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec climbed to around 7.1%, extending gains to reach its highest level since May 2024, as oil prices surged following President Donald Trump’s warning of continued strikes on Iran. The spike in crude costs heightened inflation expectations, intensifying concerns over potential rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India.

Market participants highlighted that oil above $100 a barrel could push inflation past 6%, while expectations of further rate increases have already been partially priced into yields, reflecting persistent geopolitical risks and domestic fiscal uncertainties. Traders also remained cautious ahead of the government’s first FY27 debt sale. Meanwhile, investors assessed economic indicators, including the Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 53.9 in March from 56.9 in February, as factory output and new orders grew at the slowest pace since mid-2022. Markets will be closed on April 3 and will resume on Monday.

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