The Indian GDP is expected to grow 7.4% in real terms during the 2026 financial year, according to a preliminary estimate, to reflect a rebound from the 6.5% in the earlier period and maintain India’s spot as the fastest growing economy in the G20. The acceleration compared to the government’s initial projection that growth would range between 6.3% and 6.8%, when mounting tariffs by the United States and lower imports of cheap oil from Russia presented concerns of a higher impact on the economy. Government consumption accelerated (5.2% vs 2.3% in FY25) and gross fixed capital formation picked up further (7.8% vs 7.1%), although private expenditure slowed slightly (7% vs 7.2%). In turn, exports (6.4% vs 6.3%) expanded less than imports (14.4% vs -3.7%).

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