Market Overview

• Major US indices are falling again and sentiment remains negative. The biggest decliners are the Nasdaq and Russell, with futures losses exceeding 2%. The Dow and the S&P are doing slightly better, with their futures down about 1.8%.
  • The market remains concerned about the condition of the technology sector and the lack of prospects for peace in the Persian Gulf. Many participants are currently pricing in a stagflation scenario; the main US indices are now about 10% below their highs.
  • The President of the Philadelphia Fed, Anna Paulson, said at Friday’s conference that the war in Iran is a significant risk to economic growth and inflation.
  • A notable sell-off in cybersecurity stocks continues. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto are down more than 5%, driven by concerns about competition from AI solutions developed by Atrophic.
  • The University of Michigan released its data on inflation expectations and consumer conditions. Short-term inflation expectations rose sharply to 3.8%, while consumer sentiment fell to 53.3, remaining near a historical low.
• Moderate declines were recorded across most European markets. The STOXX 600 closed nearly 1% lower. Among the major indices, the DAX is leading losses, with its futures down about 1.6%. The FTSE 100 held up relatively well, posting a symbolic decline of less than 0.1%.
  • French group Pernod Ricard, an alcohol producer, is set to enter a merger with Brown-Forman, the maker of the well-known whiskey “Jack Daniel’s.” The company’s shares are up more than 7%.
  • Spain reported an unexpected slowdown in inflation. The year-on-year CPI came in at 3.3% versus expectations of 3.7%.
  • The UK saw a clear improvement in retail sales dynamics. February’s decline was -0.4% versus expectations of -0.7%. Annual growth also exceeded forecasts, reaching 2.5%.
• In FX markets, the pound, yen, and Swiss franc are weakening, each down about 0.4% against major currencies. The US dollar is the main gainer, rising about 0.2%–0.3% versus key currency pairs.
• Brent crude is returning to the 104–105 USD per barrel area, while WTI is testing the 99 USD level. NATGAS is also rising, with futures up more than 3%.
• Gold is recouping part of its losses and is up more than 3% in Friday’s session, reaching 4,550 USD per ounce, while silver is limiting gains to 2%.
• Negative sentiment is also visible in crypto. Bitcoin is down 4.5%, falling to 65,600 USD. Ethereum is down more than 4% and is back below 2,000 USD. Solana is down more than 5%, reaching 81 USD.

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