Japan’s 10-year government bond yield eased to around 2.36% on Monday but stayed close to its highest levels since 1999, as an oil-driven inflation shock tied to the Middle East conflict reinforced expectations of a near-term rate hike from the Bank of Japan. Oil prices continued to rise as the Iran war showed no signs of easing, with President Donald Trump saying he could “take the oil in Iran” and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen joining the conflict. Meanwhile, the BOJ’s March meeting Summary of Opinions indicated a hawkish tilt among policymakers, with one member suggesting a potentially larger rate hike may be needed in response to the Middle East tensions. A sharply weakening yen, which breached the critical 160 per dollar level, further increased pressure on the central bank to act, given the impact of higher import costs on households and businesses.

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