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- NZD/USD falls as a 1.0% drop in June’s ANZ Commodity Price Index weakened the NZD.
- The NZD faces volatility as an evenly split NZIER shadow board creates deep uncertainty ahead of the July policy decision.
- The US Dollar advances as markets continue to price in multiple Fed rate hikes this year.
NZD/USD depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 0.5690 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens following the ANZ World Commodity Price Index, which fell 1.0% in June as easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices weighed.
The New Zealand Dollar faces an immediate challenge as NZIER economists look past immediate disagreements to project higher interest rates over the coming year. While the shadow board is nearly evenly split on the upcoming July policy decision, creating genuine uncertainty and potential market volatility, its medium-term outlook remains unified. Regardless of the immediate decision, members firmly agree that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) must climb to a range of 3.00% to 3.25% over the next twelve months, establishing a solid anchor for interest rate expectations.
In line with this hawkish medium-term trajectory, ANZ anticipates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will raise the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50% next Wednesday. Despite a sharp decline in global oil prices, ANZ maintains that persistent inflation risks and a weakened domestic currency warrant immediate action. They argue that delivering a neutral-to-dovish rate hike provides the RBNZ with the most comfortable tactical footing to navigate current economic pressures without overly roiling the markets.
The NZD/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) rises, as traders expect multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes later this year. This comes despite easing global inflation concerns, which have been helped by oil flows normalizing through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
The CME FedWatch tool shows financial markets are pricing in a 77.3% chance of interest rate hikes by year-end. Investors are now looking ahead to Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s June policy Meeting Minutes to gain clearer insights into the future path of interest rates.
