OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong highlights that crude briefly surged toward USD120/bbl on Iranian attacks before easing as US officials signalled supply support and Israel suggested faster de-escalation. The bank has lifted its Brent outlook, expecting prices to hold near USD100/bbl through mid-year before gradually easing toward USD70/bbl by early 2027, with prolonged shipping disruptions posing upside supply risks.

Brent outlook raised on supply risks

“Crude prices briefly jumped toward USD120/bbl after a series of Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure.”

“We lifted our Brent outlook, expecting prices to hold around USD100/bbl through mid-year before gradually easing toward USD70/bbl by early 2027.”

“Prolonged shipping paralysis is forcing Gulf producers into output shut-ins, heightening the risk that temporary disruptions evolve into more persistent supply losses.”

“Even with mitigation measures, up to 10mb/d of available offsets fall short of covering a sustained Strait closure.”

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