OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report Gold has traded lower despite geopolitical tensions, as higher Oil prices refocus markets on inflation, real rates and the Federal Reserve (Fed) path. Hawkish repricing has pushed implied 2026 Fed cuts down to 5bp, with a rising wedge pattern and fading momentum leaving near-term risks skewed to the downside, below supports at 4452 and 4260.

Technical setup points to downside risks

“Gold traded lower this week despite elevated geopolitical uncertainty.”

“Higher energy prices risk keeping inflation expectations sticky and could potentially delay Fed easing cycle.”

“For gold to regain stronger traction, markets may need to see either a pullback in oil prices or signs that geopolitical tensions are easing enough to revive dovish Fed pricing.”

“On price formation, a rising wedge pattern appears to be in the making.”

“This is typically associated with a bearish reversal in the near term.”

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