WTI crude futures fell toward $111 per barrel on Monday after climbing as high as $115.5 earlier in the session, as reports of a potential Middle East ceasefire weighed on prices. The US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are said to be negotiating terms for a possible 45-day truce that could pave the way for a more permanent resolution to the conflict. This shift in sentiment followed President Donald Trump issuing a fresh ultimatum to Iran and escalating threats against its civilian infrastructure if it failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran rejected the latest demand, leaving Hormuz effectively closed. Separately, OPEC+ warned after a weekend meeting that war-related damage to energy infrastructure could have lasting effects on oil supply even after hostilities ease. The group approved an increase in output quotas to help address a global supply shortfall, although Iran indicated on Saturday that Iraq would be exempt from its restrictions in the strait.

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