OPEC+ producers confirmed plans to maintain current output until March, with minor deviations from Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia. Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices for the third consecutive month, signaling limited scope for higher production and keeping premiums at five-year lows, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Oil supply gains constrained amid price adjustments

“After brief discussions over the weekend, the eight OPEC+ producers with voluntary production curbs confirmed their intention to keep production steady until the end of March. This comes as no surprise. The course is likely to be confirmed again at the next meeting in early February.”

“Individual countries are deviating from the plans: Kazakhstan and Iraq were producing too much in November, while Russia in particular is falling short. Overall, however, the deviation was limited to 140,000 barrels per day, according to IEA figures.”

“The current lack of scope for production increases is confirmed by Saudi Arabia’s official selling prices, which have been reduced again for February: they have been lowered for the third month in a row, and the premium for Arab Light Crude compared to the Oman/Dubai benchmark is now only 30 US cents in Asia, down from 60 US cents in January. This is the lowest it has been in five years.”

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