Rice futures rose more than 1% to $12 per hundredweight in mid-May, reaching its highest level since August 2025, as concerns over a tightening supply outlook supported prices. The USDA projects US rice supplies for the 2026–27 season at 175.2 million hundredweight, down about 15% from the previous year. The agency also raised its forecast for the average farm price to $13.50 per hundredweight, accelerating from $12.10 in the 2025–26 season. Elsewhere, farmers across Asia are reducing rice planting due to soaring fertilizer prices and higher fuel costs, which were exacerbated by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Moreover, the onset of El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to the region in the second half of the year, with signs of strain already emerging across parts of Southeast Asia. Despite these risks, global rice stocks remain ample after years of strong production, with top exporter India holding a record 42 million tons.

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