Silver Price Forecast: Bears Retain Control as XAG/USD Fails to Reclaim Key Neckline

Today Markets Analysis: Silver prices recovered more than 1% from their two-day lows on Friday, but the rebound has yet to change the short-term technical picture. XAG/USD remains below the key $64.10–$64.15 head-and-shoulders neckline, leaving sellers in control while momentum indicators continue to favour the downside.

Silver Rebounds, but Neckline Remains a Barrier

Silver traded around $64.24, recovering from an intraday low of $62.94. Despite the rebound, the white metal has failed to decisively reclaim the neckline around $64.10–$64.15.

That failure is important from a technical perspective. The head-and-shoulders structure remains intact while prices trade below the neckline, meaning the latest recovery could represent a corrective bounce rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below its neutral 50 level. Although the indicator is attempting to turn higher, it continues to signal that short-term momentum is tilted toward sellers.

XAG/USD Technical Outlook

A sustained break above $65.00 would begin to improve the technical picture and could open the way toward the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $66.94.

A move through $66.94 could then expose the $67.00 area, followed by the psychological $70.00 level.

Beyond $70.00, the next major technical reference is the 200-day SMA at $73.05.

For the bullish scenario to gain credibility, silver would need to reclaim the neckline and then establish itself above $65.00.

Downside Risks Increase Below $62.55

The immediate support level is around $64.00, but a renewed deterioration in momentum could quickly bring the 50-day SMA at $62.55 into focus.

A decisive break below $62.55 would strengthen the bearish technical structure and expose the $61.01 area, corresponding with the July 22 high-turned-support.

If $61.01 also fails, the next major downside target would be the psychological $60.00 level.

Silver’s Broader Technical Picture

The current setup leaves silver at an important technical crossroads. The recovery from $62.94 demonstrates that buyers remain active, but the inability to reclaim the neckline means the bounce has not yet invalidated the bearish formation.

For now, the $64.10–$64.15 neckline remains the key level to watch on the upside, while $62.55 represents the critical downside trigger.

A sustained move above $65.00 would shift the balance toward a recovery, whereas a break below $62.55 would reinforce the bearish scenario.

Today Markets View

Silver’s latest rebound should be treated cautiously. The 1%+ daily gain looks constructive on the surface, but the more important signal remains the failure to establish a sustained break above the head-and-shoulders neckline.

“Silver has bounced sharply from its two-day lows, but the technical structure remains vulnerable while XAG/USD trades below the $64.10–$64.15 neckline. The $62.55 area is now particularly important: a break below it would strengthen the bearish setup and bring $61.01 and $60.00 into focus.”

— Louis Roche, Analyst at Today Markets

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Key levels:
Resistance: $64.10–$64.15 → $65.00 → $66.94 → $67.00 → $70.00
Support: $64.00 → $62.55 → $61.01 → $60.00

Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets
Currency Hedger Contributor: Currency Hedger Market Intelligence

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