South Korea’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 4.33% in early June, its highest since November 2023, as strong AI investment and surging semiconductor demand fuel faster growth and stickier inflation, reinforcing expectations of continued Bank of Korea tightening. Swaps markets are pricing in at least three rate hikes this year, lifting the policy rate toward 3.25% from 2.5%. At the same time, South Korea’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.1% in May, the highest reading since March 2024, while core inflation held at 2.5%. This, coupled with a weaker won, has added to concerns over persistent price pressures and imported inflation risks. Meanwhile, fiscal spending uncertainty and the prospect of additional bond issuance are also putting upward pressure on yields, even as authorities have moved to reduce supply and step up market monitoring to curb volatility.

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