Soybean Prices Face Selling Pressure Despite Fresh Chinese Export Demand Ahead of USDA Sales Data

The US soybean market enters Friday under pressure following a broad decline across futures contracts on Thursday, with most maturities losing between 11 and 14½ cents. The November contract was the exception, slipping just 2 cents ahead of its Friday expiration.

Despite the weakness, fresh export demand provided a positive signal. The USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 metric tonnes of soybeans for the 2026/27 marketing year, with the entire volume destined for China.

The market is now looking towards Friday’s delayed USDA Export Sales report for further confirmation of international demand. Expectations point to substantial soybean bookings, although traders will also be assessing demand for soybean meal and soybean oil following losses across the wider soy complex.

Market Snapshot

All futures and cash prices reflect Thursday’s closing session.

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures recorded widespread losses on Thursday, with contracts declining between 11 and 14½ cents outside the nearby November contract.

November soybeans finished at $12.27, down just 2 cents ahead of Friday’s expiration. January 2027 futures settled at $12.19, losing 11¾ cents, while March 2027 declined 13 cents to $12.25.

November 2027 futures also weakened, falling 12¼ cents to close at $11.76.

The weakness extended into the cash market. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price declined 8½ cents to $11.60¼, while new-crop cash beans fell 12½ cents to $11.08¾.

The wider soy complex also came under pressure, with soybean meal futures losing between $2.20 and $4.30 and soybean oil declining 41 to 51 points.

The broad-based decline indicates that Thursday’s selling pressure extended beyond soybean futures into the major processed products.

Fresh Chinese Demand Provides Support

One positive development was the USDA’s announcement of a private export sale involving 136,000 metric tonnes of soybeans for the 2026/27 marketing year.

The entire shipment was destined for China, highlighting continued purchasing interest from one of the world’s major soybean importers.

The sale provides an encouraging demand signal at a time when futures prices are weakening. However, traders will be looking for further evidence that Chinese buying is translating into sustained export activity rather than isolated transactions.

The upcoming Export Sales report will provide a broader picture of demand across the US soybean market.

USDA Export Sales Report in Focus

The US Export Sales report has been delayed until Friday following the Wednesday Veterans Day federal holiday.

A Reuters survey of traders is forecasting 2026/27 soybean sales between 850,000 and 2 million metric tonnes for the week ending November 5.

Other market expectations include:

• 2027/28 soybean bookings: 0–50,000 MT.
• Soybean meal sales: 250,000–450,000 MT.
• Soybean oil sales: 0–10,000 MT.

The report will be important in determining whether international demand remains sufficiently strong to support prices following Thursday’s decline.

Soybean bookings towards the upper end of expectations could help stabilise the market, particularly given the fresh sale to China. Conversely, weaker figures could reinforce concerns about export demand and leave prices vulnerable to further selling.

Soymeal and Soybean Oil Add to Complex Weakness

The decline across soybean futures was accompanied by losses in both major processed products.

Soymeal futures fell between $2.20 and $4.30, while soybean oil contracts declined by 41 to 51 points.

The simultaneous weakness suggests that selling pressure was not restricted to raw soybeans, with the wider complex moving lower during Thursday’s session.

Friday’s export figures for meal and oil will therefore be important. The expected soybean meal sales range of 250,000–450,000 MT provides a benchmark for demand, while soybean oil bookings are forecast between zero and 10,000 MT.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Chinese Export Purchase: The USDA’s confirmation of a 136,000 MT private sale to China provides a positive demand signal for the 2026/27 marketing year.
2. Potentially Strong Export Sales: The upper end of the expected 850,000–2 million MT soybean bookings range could support market sentiment.
3. Demand Confirmation: Strong meal and soybean export bookings could help offset the recent weakness across the soy complex.
4. Nearby Contract Resilience: November 2026 soybeans declined only 2 cents ahead of expiration, outperforming deferred contracts during Thursday’s session.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Broad Futures Declines: Most soybean contracts lost between 11 and 14½ cents, indicating widespread selling pressure.
2. Weak Cash Market: National average cash beans fell 8½ cents to $11.60¼, while new-crop cash declined 12½ cents.
3. Soymeal and Oil Weakness: Losses across both processed products are adding to pressure on the wider soybean complex.
4. Export Demand Uncertainty: The market is awaiting confirmation from Friday’s USDA report that buying activity is consistent with current expectations.
5. Deferred Contract Weakness: January, March and November 2027 futures all recorded notable losses.

Soybean Price Forecast – What Traders Are Watching

Friday’s USDA Export Sales report is likely to be the most immediate influence on soybean trading.

Bookings within or above the expected 850,000–2 million MT range could provide some support, particularly if the figures demonstrate sustained demand from major importers.

The confirmed Chinese purchase of 136,000 MT offers an encouraging starting point, but the market will be looking for broader evidence of export strength.

Traders will also be monitoring soybean meal and oil sales, given the weakness across both products on Thursday.

From a technical perspective, the January 2027 contract’s $12.19 close and March 2027’s $12.25 settlement are important reference points following the latest declines. The market’s ability to stabilise around these levels may help determine whether Thursday’s selling pressure continues.

Supply Outlook

The supplied market data does not identify a new production or crop-condition development that would materially change the immediate soybean supply outlook.

For now, attention remains on existing cash-market pricing, deferred futures performance and the balance between available supply and export demand.

The upcoming USDA sales figures will provide additional information on the pace at which US supplies are being committed to international buyers.

Demand Outlook

Demand remains the central factor for the next trading sessions.

China’s confirmed purchase provides a positive indication of international interest, while the expected soybean sales range suggests traders are anticipating meaningful export activity.

However, the market needs confirmation through the broader weekly figures. Strong bookings could improve sentiment, while disappointing sales may reinforce the pressure already visible across soybean, meal and oil futures.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybeans enter Friday facing a mixed fundamental picture. Futures prices have weakened across most maturities, cash values have declined and soybean meal and oil have also moved lower.

However, the confirmed 136,000 MT sale to China provides an important counterweight, while the delayed USDA Export Sales report offers the next opportunity for demand to influence market direction.

The immediate outlook will depend on whether export bookings meet expectations and provide sufficient support to offset the recent selling pressure.

For the coming sessions, traders will be watching the January and March 2027 contracts, the national cash price and the wider soy complex for signs of stabilisation. Strong export figures could encourage a recovery, while weaker bookings may leave soybean prices exposed to further downside pressure.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Agricultural commodity futures involve significant price volatility and financial risk. Market participants should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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