The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 4.31% on Friday, moving slightly away from three-week lows reached in the previous session, investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and assess fresh data. US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday, while Israel has agreed to hold talks with Lebanon’s government, raising hopes of de-escalation in the region. The impact of the war with Iran is already being reflected in US inflation data. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024. Core CPI, however, rose more modestly to 2.6%. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in April and inflation expectations for the year ahead also moved sharply higher. Investors currently see little chance of another interest-rate cut by the Fed in 2026 and many economists are maintaining forecasts for one or more reductions later in the year.

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