European natural gas futures rose to €36.3/MWh, recovering from an over 4% loss on Monday, as markets refocused on low and declining gas storage levels across the EU. Gas storage is now about 49.9% full, well below around 61% at the same time last year and almost 14 billion cubic metres under the five-year average. Major hubs continue to draw down reserves, with storage at roughly 42.3% in Germany, 41.8% in France and 35.6% in the Netherlands, while Italy at 64.5% and Austria at 53.5% are also falling. Cooler temperatures are expected, which could lift demand, while competition for LNG cargoes may intensify as parts of Asia prepare for colder weather. Supply worries were reinforced by sharply lower nominations at the Montoir and Fos Cavaou terminals in France. At the same time, tensions between the US and Europe are adding uncertainty, with fears Washington could use LNG exports as leverage, a key risk given the EU sourced 27% of its gas and LNG from the US in 2025 (vs 6% in 2021).

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