The S&P Global UK Composite PMI was revised down sharply to 50.3 in March 2026, below both the preliminary estimate of 51 and February’s 53.7, marking the slowest business activity growth in six months. The reading points to only a marginal expansion, as the Middle East war saps momentum across the economy. Service sector growth stalled, while manufacturing output contracted again, reversing recent gains. On the cost front, input price inflation surged to its highest level since February 2023, squeezing margins. Meanwhile, business confidence plunged to its lowest since June 2025, reflecting deepening concerns over the economic outlook.

UK Services Activity Growth Revised Lower

The S&P Global UK Services PMI was revised lower to 50.5 in March 2026 from a flash estimate of 51.2, down from February’s 53.9. The sector saw its slowest expansion in the ongoing 11-month growth streak amid rising global economic uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. Output rose only slightly, while total new work fell for the first time since November 2025, recording the sharpest contraction in eight months. Export orders also fell sharply, marking the fastest decline since April 2025. Staffing numbers were further reduced, amid a lack of pressure on business capacity, alongside the need to mitigate rising payroll costs. Backlogs remained broadly unchanged despite widespread shipping delays and supply chain disruptions. Input cost inflation picked up to a 11-month high, driven by higher prices paid for fuel, transportation and raw materials. March saw continued positive expectations for business activity, although sentiment eased markedly from January’s 15-month high.

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