The UK 10-year gilt yield held steady just below 4.5%, near its lowest level since December 2024, after weaker-than-expected labor market data reinforced expectations of a Bank of England interest rate cut next month. Regular pay growth slowed to 4.6% in the third quarter, the weakest since February–April 2022, while total pay, including bonuses, rose 4.8%, slightly below forecasts of 4.9%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to a four-year high of 5.0%, surpassing expectations of 4.9%, as the number of unemployed increased and employment fell for the first time since early 2024. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged last week but indicated that a rate cut in December remains possible, depending on how persistent domestic inflation pressures prove. Investors now turn to third-quarter GDP figures on Thursday for further guidance ahead of the Autumn Budget 2025 later this month.

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