The CBI’s monthly retail sales volume measure tumbled to –68 in April 2026, a 16-point drop and the lowest reading since the series began in 1983. The figure, far worse than the expected –48, marks the steepest year-over-year decline in retail activity in over four decades, as the escalating Iran war intensifies household inflation concerns. The downturn extended beyond physical stores, with online retail sales volumes crashing at the fastest pace since January 2024 (–51 from –11), while wholesale sales volumes also contracted sharply (–32 from –31). Outlook for May has also deteriorated sharply, with expectations falling to –60 from –49, the most pessimistic forecast since March 2021 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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