The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.37% on Thursday as hopes for a quick end to the Middle East war faded, fueling concerns of a prolonged energy crisis that could drive inflation higher.

President Donald Trump told the nation in a prime-time speech that the conflict may be nearing an end but warned that the US would continue military action against Iran over the next two to three weeks. Iran on Wednesday also denied Trump’s claim that it had requested a ceasefire. Meanwhile, latest data showed that March ADP private payrolls exceeded forecasts, and February retail sales posted stronger-than-expected gains, underscoring the resilience of the US economy. Markets are now pricing in zero rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, even though Fed’s own projections, updated last month, still show one reduction.

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