The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.48% on Thursday after climbing in the previous session, as stronger-than-expected labor market data reinforced expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. The ADP report released Wednesday showed private-sector employment rose by 122K in May, beating forecasts and reaching its highest level since January 2025. Earlier in the week, JOLTS data indicated that job openings increased in April to their highest level since November 2024. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on the strength of the labor market. Treasury yields also found support from escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have kept oil prices elevated and added to inflationary pressures. Markets currently price in an 85% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end, up from 60% a week ago.

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