The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.24% on Thursday, reaching five-week highs as oil prices resumed their rally, heightening inflationary risks and reducing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Oil surged for a second day as the prospect of a protracted Iran war overshadowed a coordinated release of oil reserves by major economies, with the IEA approving its largest-ever release of 400 million barrels. Iraq also halted operations at its oil terminals after two tankers were targeted in Iraqi waters, highlighting elevated supply risks in the region. On the data front, February inflation came in line with forecasts, showing stable but above-target CPI. However, the full impact of the energy surge from the conflict has yet to be reflected. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady next week, with traders pricing in only one 25 bps cut, possibly in September.

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