The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.48% on Tuesday as investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting for fresh clues on the outlook for interest rates. Data released last week showed a sharp slowdown in US job growth in June, alongside downward revisions to payroll figures for the previous two months, leading markets to scale back expectations for near-term rate hikes. Meanwhile, the latest ISM Services PMI indicated a modest slowdown in services sector activity that largely matched forecasts, while price pressures eased to their lowest level since February and employment posted its strongest gain since late 2021. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a Fed rate increase in September, down from about two-thirds before the latest employment report. Investors will also monitor US trade deficit data due later in the day.

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