The World Bank on Tuesday projects China’s economic growth to slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, citing a prolonged property market downturn and cautious consumer spending. It warned that a deeper housing slump could further weigh on consumption, real estate investment, and related industries. The outlook follows continued weakness in the housing market, with new home prices falling 3.5% year-on-year in May, marking the 35th consecutive monthly decline. Despite these challenges, China’s economy grew 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports, while the government set a 4.5%–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026, the lowest since 1991, marking the first downgrade since 2023, after maintaining a target of around 5% for the previous three years.

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