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- USD/CAD struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Monday amid mixed cues.
- Fed rate cut bets prompt some USD selling and act as a headwind for the major.
- Softer Oil prices and Canadian politics undermine the Loonie and lend support.
The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note amid the emergence of some selling around the US Dollar (USD), though it lacks bearish conviction and has now reversed an Asian session dip to the 1.4325 region. Spot prices, however, remain confined in Friday’s broader range and currently trade just below mid-1.4300s, nearly unchanged for the day.
Even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a bump higher to its inflation projection, investors seem convinced that a tariff-driven US economic slowdown might force the central bank to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, along with a positive risk, fails to assist the safe-haven USD to build on a three-day-old recovery move from a multi-month low and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices attract some sellers and move away from a three-week high touched on Friday as traders brace for US President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Adding to this hopes for a positive outcome from Russia-Ukraine peace talks further weigh on the black liquid, which, in turn, undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and helps limit any meaningful downside for the USD/CAD pair.
Furthermore, Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has called for a snap election in the country on April 28. This further holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Canadian Dollar (CAD), which suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair is to the upside. That said, last week’s failure near the 1.4400 mark makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the release of flash US PMI prints later during the North American session. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members and the broader risk sentiment will drive the USD demand. This, along with Oil price dynamics, should produce short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing fresh directional bets.
