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JPYTechnical AnalysisUSD

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Testing consolidation breakout near 158.00

  • USD/JPY declines to near 158.35 amid verbal warnings of Japan’s intervention.
  • Japan’s Katayama said that all options are available to counter excessive one-way moves against Yen.
  • Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged this month.

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.18% lower to near 158.35 during the early European trading session on Friday. The pair has come under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on verbal warnings of intervention by Japan to counter one-way excessive moves.

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.03%-0.05%-0.16%-0.05%-0.08%-0.33%-0.13%
EUR0.03%-0.02%-0.13%-0.02%-0.04%-0.29%-0.09%
GBP0.05%0.02%-0.11%0.00%-0.02%-0.27%-0.07%
JPY0.16%0.13%0.11%0.13%0.08%-0.17%0.03%
CAD0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.13%-0.05%-0.30%-0.09%
AUD0.08%0.04%0.02%-0.08%0.05%-0.25%-0.04%
NZD0.33%0.29%0.27%0.17%0.30%0.25%0.20%
CHF0.13%0.09%0.07%-0.03%0.09%0.04%-0.20%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Earlier in the day, Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that all options, including direct currency intervention, are available for dealing with the recent weakness in the JPY.

Early this week, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that Japan needs sound formulation and communication of monetary policy, after meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

However, the broader outlook of the JPY remains uncertain as investors expect Japan to follow looser fiscal policy this year to stimulate economic growth.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ticks down ahead of an extended weekend in the US, but is broadly firm as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting later this month.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY corrects on Friday to near 158.00, testing the breakout region of the consolidation formed in the range between 154.40 and 157.90 in the last two months.

Price holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 157.33, keeping the near-term uptrend intact. The 20-day EMA’s steady upslope underscores sustained buying pressure.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 (bullish) after easing from an overbought reading supports trend continuation as momentum normalizes.

While above the 20-day EMA, the pair would remain biased higher, with pullbacks expected to be supported at that moving average. RSI near 62 leaves room for further upside before overbought conditions re-emerge. A daily close below 157.33 would shift the bias toward a deeper retracement, whereas holding above it preserves the advance.

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