
Wheat futures advanced toward $6.50 per bushel in mid-July, reaching their highest level since May 22, as investors weighed mounting geopolitical risks and their potential impact on global grain flows. Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted shipping in the Sea of Azov, a key route that handles about a quarter of Russia’s grain exports. This has forced Moscow to seek alternative transport routes and switch to other modes of transport. Renewed tensions in the Middle East also provided further support, with concerns over higher fertilizer and fuel costs resurfacing following recent attacks between the US and Iran and uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US government cut its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 41.8 million tonnes, the lowest since 1970, and lowered Canada’s output estimate by 1 million tonnes to 34 million tonnes.





