• WTI edges lower on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak to an over two-week high.
• Mixed technical indicators warrant some caution before placing aggressive directional bets.
• A sustained move beyond the 200-day EMA is needed to negate the near-term bearish bias.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on a two-day rally, reaching an over two-week high touched the previous day, and trades with a negative bias during the Asian session on Thursday. The commodity, however, lacks follow-through selling and currently trades just above the $74.00 mark, down around 0.65% for the day.

Looking at the broader picture, Crude Oil prices stalled the recent recovery move from the lowest level since late February near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall. Moreover, the black liquid keeps a bearish near-term tone below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Adding to this, mixed momentum oscillators reinforce that rebounds remain capped by overhead structure rather than trend reversal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive with the line above zero, suggesting a nascent recovery attempt, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 still reflects only moderate buying interest. Hence, any move beyond the 23.6% Fibo. hurdle at $75.69 could face significant resistance near the 200-day EMA at $77.27. A sustained strength beyond this, however, should pave the way for further gains.

The 38.2% retracement at $81.23 and the 50.0% level at $85.71 form subsequent resistance layers, while deeper bullish extensions would face the 61.8% retracement at $90.19 and higher Fibo. levels at $96.56 and $104.69. On the downside, the main structural support is seen at the cycle low at $66.73, where sellers could pause if the current bearish bias reasserts itself.

WTI daily chart

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