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RippleTechnical Analysis

XRP rebounds amid fading on-chain activity, muted institutional demand

  • XRP rises alongside the broader crypto market and steadies above the $1.35 support on Monday.
  • XRP on-chain activity takes a hit, with active addresses dropping to near 14,400 as of Sunday.
  • XRP ETF activity remains muted for the second consecutive day, with cumulative inflows at $1.21 billion.

Ripple (XRP) is trading around $1.35 at the time of writing on Monday. The remittance token’s knee-jerk recovery from last week’s lows of $1.29 mirrors the broader crypto market’s recovery, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $67,000 after its $65,000 trough.

Retail interest remains low, with Open Interest (OI) at $2.54 billion on Monday, reflecting the notional value of outstanding futures and options contracts. In contrast, OI peaked at a record $10.94 billion in July, coinciding with the price hitting an all-time high of $3.66. This massive drop undermines retail investor interest in the token and signals their unwillingness to increase risk exposure.

XRP Futures OI | Source: CoinGlass

XRP on-chain activity dwindles amid muted ETF demand

XRP is experiencing a significant decline in the number of addresses actively transacting on-chain, sending or receiving assets. CryptoQuant data shows the addresses averaging 14,400 on Monday, down approximately 45% from the March high of around 26,400.

Falling active addresses signal reduced user engagement and ultimately demand for XRP, which could limit the token’s recovery potential.

XRP Active Addresses | Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, institutional demand for XRP digital investment products has dropped significantly over the last few weeks, as evidenced by muted activity in futures Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Thursday and Friday.

Cumulative inflows have steadied at $1.21 billion, while net assets under management have dropped to around $933 million, from the record $1.65 billion on January 1.

XRP ETF flows | Source: SoSoValue

Technical outlook: XRP rebounds amid broader sideways trend

XRP hovers above $1.35 as bulls battle to regain control, following a sharp rebound from last week’s $1.29 trough. Despite the upswing, which mirrors gains across the crypto market, XRP’s near-term bias is mildly bearish as price holds below the descending 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, clustered between $1.46 and $1.90, keeping the broader trend under pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits below the signal line on the daily chart. The expanding red histogram bars could prompt traders to reduce exposure, weakening the tailwind needed to sustain a short-term recovery. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart is at 43 and below the 50 midline, indicating sellers retain a slight momentum edge without reaching oversold conditions.

XRP/USDT daily chart

XRP’s initial resistance lies at the recent reaction high near $1.40, followed by stronger supply at $1.46, aligning with the 50-day EMA and a descending trendline, where rejection would preserve the corrective structure. A daily close above that moving average would be needed to ease the bearish bias and open the way toward the 100-day EMA at $1.63.

On the downside, immediate support stands at $1.33, ahead of the demand region near $1.30, which acts as the first meaningful floor for dips. A decisive break below $1.30 would expose the next support band toward $1.25, where buyers would be expected to regroup.

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