WTI rallies back into $92 as extended ceasefire fails to calm supply fears

• Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, demanding a unified peace proposal from Tehran to halt renewed strikes.
• Persian Gulf producers cut output by around 6% as the Strait of Hormuz closure pushed regional storage to capacity.
• Thursday’s US flash PMI readings and weekly EIA inventory data could shift supply-demand expectations as talks stall.

West Texas Intermediary (WTI) Crude Oil advances more than 3% on Wednesday, trading back above $92 after testing $93 earlier in the session. The move extends a sharp two-day recovery from Monday’s low around $85, reclaiming territory last seen in early April. Tuesday’s session produced a strong bullish candle with minimal upper wick, and Wednesday’s follow-through has come on shallow pullbacks, pointing to firm upside momentum.

The dominant macro driver remains the US-Iran conflict and the uncertainty around Tuesday’s extended ceasefire. President Donald Trump extended the two-week truce before it was due to expire Wednesday night, describing Tehran’s government as “seriously fractured” and saying the pause would hold only until Iran submits a “unified proposal” to end the war. The extension followed a breakdown in planned talks in Pakistan earlier this week after Iran failed to respond to US negotiating positions, pushing Vice President JD Vance to delay his trip to Islamabad. Markets have been reluctant to price in a durable de-escalation, and the rally off Monday’s lows suggests a reversion toward pricing the war premium back in.

Supply fundamentals continue to support elevated prices. Persian Gulf Oil producers have reportedly cut output by about 6% as the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushed regional storage capacity to its limits, while demand destruction estimates sit near 4 million to 5 million barrels per day. Thursday’s US flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures and the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report are the next scheduled catalysts, though Iran headlines are expected to keep setting the tone. Spot WTI has also diverged notably from front-month futures this week, with spot trading near $92 while May futures settled closer to $90 on Tuesday, reflecting deepening backwardation as the physical market tightens.

WTI 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, WTI US OIL trades at $92.10. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds well above the session open and continues to print higher intraday highs, suggesting persistent buying interest. The Stochastic RSI sits in overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is stretched but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal, so any pullback would currently look corrective within the short-term advance.

With no nearby moving averages or Fibonacci levels available, traders will focus on price action itself, where minor intraday consolidations and prior swing highs will guide the immediate topside levels as the rally extends. On the downside, only a sustained break back toward the $90.00 region would begin to erode the current bullish structure and open the door to a deeper corrective phase on this timeframe.

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $92.14, preserving a constructive near-term bias as price holds well above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $84.97 and the 200-day EMA at $71.42. The wide gap between spot and these trend measures suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, although the Stochastic RSI near 13 signals deeply oversold momentum, hinting that the latest pullback has stretched the downside in the short term within that broader bullish structure.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the recent close area around $92.14, with stronger trend support emerging at the 50-day EMA at $84.97 and then the 200-day EMA near $71.42 if selling deepens. With no nearby moving average resistance overhead in this dataset, further recovery attempts would likely be driven more by momentum normalization from oversold Stochastic RSI readings than by the clearance of clearly defined technical caps.

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