• WTI falls as an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renews hopes for a broader diplomatic resolution, easing global oil supply concerns.
• Geopolitical optimism was held in check after President Trump threatened to cancel the ceasefire if Tehran kills US troops.
• The EIA reported US crude stockpiles fell by 8 million barrels to 433.7 million, doubling expectations in a Reuters poll.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price declines after three successive days of gains, trading around $92.70 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday. Crude oil prices fall as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon renews hopes for a broader diplomatic resolution to the US-Israeli war with Iran, easing global supply anxieties.

Following US-led talks in Washington, a joint statement announced that the deal mandates a “complete cessation” of hostilities by Iran-backed Hezbollah. To ensure compliance, the two nations agreed to set up “pilot security zones” under the exclusive control of Lebanese armed forces, effectively shutting out non-state actors.

However, market optimism remains checked by lingering political friction and geopolitical uncertainty. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that US President Donald Trump told aides he would consider calling off the ceasefire if Tehran kills US troops, though he maintained that the weeks-long pause in airstrikes is still holding. In a separate interview with the New York Post, Trump noted that while a shipping blockade lasting until Labor Day is unlikely, it remains possible, effectively shifting the market’s timeline for a complete reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz.

On Wednesday, the Republican-led US House of Representatives passed a resolution to curb President Trump’s war powers regarding Iran for the first time. However, the measure faces a steep legislative battle to override an expected presidential veto.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles plummeted by 8 million barrels last week to 433.7 million barrels, doubling analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll. Consequently, Reuters cited Haitong Futures, suggesting that rapidly declining global inventories are bound to keep oil prices testing the upper bounds of their current trading range.

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