Bund Yields at Over Two-Week High on Inflation Fears
German 10-year Bund yields climbed above 3.05%, reaching their highest since May 21, as traders nearly fully priced in three European Central Bank rate hikes this year. Fading hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a over 4% surge in Brent crude after Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes, fueled the shift. This occurred despite President Trump’s calls for de-escalation. With the ECB policy meeting approaching, a 25 basis point rate increase is widely expected. The move follows euro-area inflation rising to 3.2% in May, its highest in over two and a half years. However, uncertainty remains after Eurozone GDP figures were revised to show a contraction in Q1 2026, the first since late 2022 and the steepest since mid-2020. Money markets now price the ECB deposit rate at around 2.7% by December, up from the current 2%, and indicate a near-certain first rate rise this month, followed by a second in September.
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