S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
BNY reports that European Central Bank (ECB) officials are signaling a preference to hold rates at the April meeting, despite Eurozone inflation rising to 2.6% year-on-year in March. Policymakers stress the need for more data given Iran-related growth and oil risks. Markets still price two hikes later in 2026, leaving EUR/USD supported but sensitive to evolving ECB guidance.
Two hikes priced despite April caution
“Interest rate policy is a key area of difference for EU vs. U.S. outlooks, with two rate hikes priced for the ECB and just under one rate cut for the U.S. The shift today is that expectations of a quick April hike from the ECB are unwinding as central bankers speak at the IMF meetings and push back against acting in haste. Nevertheless, March CPI of 2.6% y/y is higher than expected and above target.”
“ECB officials are leaning toward holding interest rates steady at their April 29-30 meeting, delaying decisions amid uncertainty over the impact of the Iran war on economic growth and inflation. Despite a March rise in headline inflation to 2.6% y/y in the euro area, underlying price pressures remain limited.”
“ECB President Christine Lagarde has emphasized agility without a bias toward hikes, while Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau has called for more data before acting, citing risks from volatile oil prices and potential negative effects on demand and growth.”
“The ECB’s Isabel Schnabel has said the ECB can afford to take time to analyze the Iran shock and does not want to impose unnecessary costs on the economy. Investors still anticipate two quarter-point hikes later this year.”
