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Dow Jones — Industrial Average
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
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Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
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Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Société Générale

ECB: Dovish rhetoric with high bar for cuts – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts report that several ECB officials have turned more dovish, emphasizing downside inflation risks and potential disinflation from rising Chinese imports. Others warn that a sharp Euro appreciation could prompt a policy response. Nonetheless, with rates near the estimated neutral level, the bank judges that reopening debate on further cuts remains difficult.

Officials flag downside inflation risks

“Communication from ECB members turned dovish after the meeting last Thursday.”

“Several officials warned that downside inflation risks are becoming more prominent and could reopen the door to further rate cuts.”

“Rehn flagged a “real risk of lower‑than‑expected inflation,” while Villeroy stressed that downside risks are “probably more significant” and highlighted rising Chinese import volumes as a potential source of additional disinflation.”

“Kazaks struck a cautionary tone, warning that a sharp and rapid strengthening of the euro could trigger an ECB response.”

“Overall, with the policy rate appropriate at 2%, the mid-point of the neutral range, the bar is high to re-open the debate about lowering rates.”

Today Markets

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