• WTI trades with a mild negative bias for the third straight day, though it lacks follow-through.
• The uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal lends support to the black liquid.
• The technical setup warrants caution for bullish traders or positioning for a meaningful upside.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – remains on the back foot for the third consecutive day and trades around mid-$96.00s during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity, however, managed to hold above a nearly two-week low, around the $95.00 psychological mark, touched the previous day.

A senior Iranian official said that no deal has been reached with the United States (US), but gaps have been narrowed. Investors, however, remain skeptical about an elusive US-Iran peace deal amid major disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices, warranting some caution for aggressive bearish traders.

From a technical perspective, the black liquid is holding just above a dense support band despite weakening momentum and hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing in April. The 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $95.09 and the upward-sloping trend-line support around $95.49 sit below the current price, still underpinning the broader uptrend.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 36, and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests bearish pressure is building. This, in turn, hints that rebounds may struggle unless buyers regain traction above the nearby overhead barrier, defined by the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $100.42. A sustained break would be needed to reopen a push toward the recent highs.

On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 38.2% retracement near $96.32, followed by the former trend-line area at $95.49 and the 200-period SMA at $95.09. A clear drop through this cluster would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at $93.00 and $89.69, shifting the medium-term structure decisively in favor of sellers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

WTI 4-hour chart

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