S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico MarketRenewed geopolitical tensions and rising oil volatility have reconnected EUR/NOK with crude dynamics, setting the stage for potential NOK strength if supply risks escalate, Société Générale’s FX analysts Olivier Korber and Kit Juckes reports.
Geopolitical risks revive crude-NOK correlation
“Since September, EUR/NOK has reconnected with oil dynamics. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Americas and Iran have injected fresh volatility into crude markets, and the rebound from $60/bbl looks more like a starting point than a peak. Our commodity team highlights that a full disruption of Iranian supply, even for a week, could lift oil prices by at least $15/bbl. Such a scenario would materially strengthen NOK.”
“December’s underlying inflation surprised to the upside at 3.1% vs. 3.0% expected, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious stance. While growth is projected below trend, persistent price pressures limit the scope for aggressive rate cuts. Markets remain reluctant to price more than half a cut in 1H, and stickly inflation doesn’t suggest a dovish Norges Bank. The central bank cautiousness should underpin NOK resilience.”
“NOK/SEK has been trading near multi-year lows just above 0.91, suggesting a technical floor. With downside potential likely capped in this cross, NOK’s vulnerability across the board looks contained.”
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