Key macroeconomic releases Germany

• Yesterday’s data on durable goods orders in Germany surprised on the upside (growth of 6.2%). Today’s industrial production reading for May was also better than expected (up by an impressive 0.9% month-on-month).The country is still awaiting the effects of the massive fiscal stimulus announced in March last year by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. 500 billion euros were allocated then for investments in infrastructure, healthcare, the energy sector, and digital modernization.
• The country is still awaiting the effects of the massive fiscal stimulus announced in March last year by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. 500 billion euros were allocated then for investments in infrastructure, healthcare, the energy sector, and digital modernization.

Eurozone

• May PPI inflation in the Eurozone is also up (to 5.9%). However, the reading is largely in line with expectations.Retail sales data also provided no surprises (1.6% year-on-year).
• Retail sales data also provided no surprises (1.6% year-on-year).

United States

• In the United States, there was a modest downward revision of PMI indicators for June. The composite index ended up at 51.9, which suggests a slowdown in economic growth relative to the very impressive 2.7% in Q1.

Hungary

• Both inflation measures were at low levels in June. The headline fell below the lower bound of the target deviation (1.7%). It seems likely that the MNB will continue to ease monetary policy. The last meeting resulted in a decrease in the benchmark interest rate to 6%.

Macroeconomic calendar Tuesday

• UK: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speechTime: 11:30 AM
• Time: 11:30 AM
• US: FOMC member Michelle Bowman’s speechTime: 12:00 PM
• Time: 12:00 PM
• US: Trade balance (May)Time: 12:00 PMConsensus: -78.3 billion USDPrevious reading: -55.9 billion USD
• Time: 12:00 PM
• Consensus: -78.3 billion USD
• Previous reading: -55.9 billion USD

Corporate earnings releases

• Penguin Solutions (PENG.US) – AMC (after market close)
• Kura Sushi (KRUS.US) – AMC (after market close)

3 Markets to Watch

• US100: Nasdaq 100 futures are over 1% lower. Sentiment around the leaders of the AI revolution, companies that have recorded the largest gains so far, is worsening again. The catalyst for the sell-off: Samsung’s preliminary Q2 results.
• Coffee and cocoa: Over the month, prices for coffee and cocoa have risen by over 40% amid rising concerns about a sharp temperature increase in Ghana and Ivory Coast and sudden downpours in Brazil, which this year’s El Niño is expected to bring.
• EURUSD: The pair has risen against local lows from the last days of June, yet it remains slightly above 1.14. On Wednesday, we await the publication of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting.

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