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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Russia to 1.1% from January’s estimate of 0.8%, due to higher oil and other commodity prices resulting from the Middle East crisis. The new 1.1% growth forecast for 2026 is slightly higher than the 1% expansion recorded in 2025. The Russian economy slowed sharply in 2025 to around 1% growth, down from 4.9% in 2024, due to the central bank’s tight monetary policy and Western sanctions. The economy is also under strain from spending on the war in Ukraine. However, the IMF’s 2026 forecast is below the Russian Economic Development Ministry’s 1.3% projection, although the ministry has said this will be lowered. It remains within the 0.5%–1.5% range forecast by the Central Bank of Russia in February.
