Moody’s Downgrades Mexico’s Ratings to Baa3

Moody’s Ratings on Wednesday downgraded Mexico’s credit rating to “Baa3” from “Baa2” and revised its outlook to stable from negative, saying weaker fiscal conditions and conflicting policy priorities were undermining its policy credibility. The agency cited a sustained weakening in fiscal strength that accelerated in 2024 and is expected to persist, pointing to “rigid” spending, a “narrow” revenue base, and support for the state-run oil firm Petróleos Mexicanos. The economy is expected to remain subdued, as vulnerability to fiscal shocks increases, while GDP is projected to gradually return to around 2% growth. Mexico’s central bank, in its latest quarterly report, forecast economic growth of 1.6% this year and 2% by 2027, while the government has projected up to 2.9% growth next year. Standard & Poor’s credit rating for Mexico stands at BBB with a negative outlook, while DBRS’s rating for Mexico was last reported at BBB with a stable outlook.

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