Soybeans SLIDE Toward 5-Week Low as Record US Crop and Weak China Demand Weigh

Soybean futures fell to around $12.70 per bushel on Friday, approaching a five-week low as harvest pressure from expectations for a record-large U.S. crop continued to weigh on prices.

Wet conditions during late summer and early autumn slowed the harvest pace, but the arrival of new-crop supplies is keeping pressure on the market. Harvest was 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average, while 58% of the crop was rated good or excellent.

Expectations of weaker August soybean crush also added pressure after processors crushed 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate.

Weak Chinese demand remains another headwind. Soybeans were excluded from China’s latest U.S. agricultural tariff cuts and remain subject to an additional 10% tariff. Chinese crushers have already covered much of their requirements through early 2027 with South American supplies, while high inventories and weak processing margins are limiting fresh purchases.

However, U.S. export demand remains firm. Weekly soybean sales reached 1.03 million tonnes for the 2026/27 marketing year, including 589,400 tonnes to China, providing an important counterweight to the broader bearish supply picture.

Market Snapshot

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures declined to around $12.70 per bushel, bringing prices close to a five-week low.

The market remains under pressure as the U.S. harvest progresses and new supplies become increasingly available.

Although wet conditions slowed harvesting earlier in the season, progress has now reached 17%, matching the five-year average.

The combination of a large expected crop and advancing harvest is creating a significant near-term supply headwind.

At the same time, weaker-than-expected domestic crush activity and uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand are limiting the ability of strong U.S. export sales to generate sustained upside momentum.

US Harvest Pressure Builds

The expected size of the U.S. soybean crop remains one of the biggest factors weighing on futures.

Harvest was 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average.

The pace indicates that the arrival of new supplies is broadly in line with the seasonal norm despite earlier wet weather.

The crop was also rated 58% good or excellent, reinforcing expectations for substantial production.

As more soybeans move from fields into commercial channels, farmers, elevators and processors face increasing physical availability.

That seasonal supply increase can place pressure on futures even when export demand remains relatively strong.

Crop Conditions Remain Important

The 58% good-or-excellent crop rating remains an important indicator for the final production outlook.

A large crop combined with normal harvest progress would increase the amount of soybeans entering the market during the key harvest period.

Traders will continue watching yield reports and harvest results to determine whether actual production confirms expectations for a record-large crop.

Any evidence of lower-than-expected yields could reduce the supply pressure.

Conversely, strong yields would reinforce expectations for ample U.S. soybean availability.

August Crush Falls Short of Expectations

Domestic processing provided another bearish signal.

U.S. processors crushed 209.6 million bushels of soybeans during August, below the average trade estimate.

The crush figure matters because domestic processing represents a major source of soybean demand.

Lower-than-expected crush activity suggests processors were not absorbing supplies at the pace the market had anticipated.

This can increase the amount of attention placed on export demand as traders assess whether total soybean consumption will be strong enough to offset the large crop.

China Demand Remains a Major Concern

Chinese demand continues to be one of the most closely watched factors in the soybean market.

Soybeans were excluded from China’s latest U.S. agricultural tariff cuts and remain subject to an additional 10% tariff.

The tariff keeps U.S. soybeans at a competitive disadvantage relative to alternative origins.

Chinese crushers have also covered much of their needs through early 2027 using South American supplies.

With inventories remaining high and processing margins weak, Chinese buyers have less immediate incentive to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans.

South American Competition Limits US Export Potential

South American soybean supplies are creating additional competition for U.S. exporters.

Chinese crushers have secured significant volumes from South America through early 2027, reducing the urgency to make additional purchases from the United States.

This creates a difficult environment for U.S. soybeans during the harvest period.

Strong export sales can provide support, but sustained Chinese buying will be important if the U.S. market is to absorb the large new crop without continued price pressure.

US Export Demand Provides a Counterweight

Despite the concerns surrounding China, U.S. export demand remains firm.

Weekly soybean sales for the 2026/27 marketing year reached 1.03 million tonnes.

China accounted for 589,400 tonnes of those bookings.

The sales figure provides evidence that international buyers continue to purchase U.S. soybeans despite tariff and competition concerns.

If weekly sales remain around or above the 1-million-tonne level, they could help absorb some of the additional supplies arriving from the U.S. harvest.

Bullish Sentiment

1. U.S. export sales remain strong

Weekly 2026/27 soybean sales reached 1.03 million tonnes.

2. China remains a significant buyer

China accounted for 589,400 tonnes of the latest weekly sales.

3. Harvest progress is not running ahead of normal

The U.S. harvest was 17% complete, matching the five-year average.

4. Weather could still affect harvest

Further wet conditions could slow the movement of new supplies and temporarily reduce harvest pressure.

5. Strong exports could absorb new-crop supplies

Sustained international demand would help offset the impact of a large U.S. crop.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Soybeans are approaching a five-week low

Prices have fallen toward $12.70 per bushel as harvest pressure increases.

2. The U.S. crop is expected to be record-large

Large production expectations are increasing available supply.

3. Chinese demand remains weak

High inventories and weak processing margins are limiting fresh purchases.

4. U.S. soybeans remain subject to an additional Chinese tariff

The 10% tariff can reduce the competitiveness of U.S. supplies.

5. August crush missed expectations

Processors crushed 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate.

6. South American supplies are competitive

Chinese crushers have already covered much of their requirements through early 2027 with South American soybeans.

Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

Soybeans are approaching a five-week low as the market absorbs increasing new-crop supplies.

The immediate price outlook will depend on whether export demand can offset the combination of large production expectations, advancing harvest progress and weaker domestic crush activity.

The 1.03-million-tonne weekly export figure provides evidence of solid demand, while China’s 589,400-tonne share shows that Chinese buyers have not completely withdrawn from the U.S. market.

However, high Chinese inventories, weak processing margins and South American competition could limit the pace of future purchases.

A sustained increase in U.S. export demand could help stabilize prices during harvest.

If sales weaken while production and harvest progress remain strong, additional supply pressure could keep futures near their recent lows.

Supply Outlook

The U.S. supply outlook remains dominated by expectations for a record-large soybean crop.

Harvest progress of 17% is currently in line with the five-year average, meaning new supplies are entering the market at a normal seasonal pace.

The 58% good-or-excellent crop rating also points to substantial production potential.

The next major supply signals will come from harvest results, reported yields and the pace at which soybeans move into commercial channels.

Any significant deviation from expected yields could change the balance between supply availability and demand.

Demand Outlook

Demand remains mixed.

U.S. export sales are providing support, with weekly bookings reaching 1.03 million tonnes.

However, domestic crush activity was below expectations in August, while Chinese demand remains constrained by high inventories, weak margins and competition from South American supplies.

The key question is whether exports can remain strong enough to compensate for weaker domestic processing and slower Chinese buying.

The answer will be important for determining whether harvest pressure remains the dominant market force.

Currency Hedger View

For international soybean traders and physical buyers, the U.S. dollar remains an important part of the demand equation.

U.S. soybean prices are ultimately translated into local currencies for overseas buyers. A stronger dollar can reduce purchasing power and make U.S.-origin supplies less competitive, while a softer dollar can improve export competitiveness.

Businesses exposed to soybean purchases should therefore monitor the relationship between soybean futures, U.S. dollar movements and international commodity demand.

The currency component can materially change the effective cost of a physical soybean transaction even when the underlying futures price remains relatively stable.

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Coming Sessions

The next market catalysts will centre on harvest progress, export demand and Chinese buying activity.

Traders will be watching:

• U.S. soybean harvest progress
• Crop yield reports
• Weekly U.S. soybean export sales
• Chinese soybean purchases
• Chinese soybean inventories
• South American soybean availability
• U.S. soybean crush data
• Soymeal demand
• Soybean oil demand
• U.S. dollar movements
• Weather during the remaining harvest period

A continuation of weekly export sales around 1 million tonnes or higher could help offset harvest pressure.

If Chinese demand remains weak and domestic crush activity disappoints again, the large U.S. crop could continue to weigh on prices.

Today Markets View

Soybeans are approaching a five-week low as the U.S. harvest brings additional supplies into the market and expectations for a record-large crop keep pressure on futures.

Harvest progress of 17% is currently matching the five-year average, while 58% of the crop is rated good or excellent.

Domestic demand has also provided a weaker signal, with August crush at 209.6 million bushels, below the average trade estimate.

China remains another major uncertainty. U.S. soybeans remain subject to an additional 10% tariff, while Chinese crushers have already covered much of their requirements through early 2027 with South American supplies.

However, U.S. export demand remains firm. Weekly 2026/27 sales reached 1.03 million tonnes, including 589,400 tonnes to China.

The next move will therefore depend on whether strong export demand can absorb the incoming U.S. harvest quickly enough to offset the pressure from large production expectations and softer domestic processing.

Analysis Louis Roche – Today Markets

Currency Hedger

For businesses buying or selling soybeans internationally, currency movements can have a direct impact on the effective cost of physical commodity transactions.

Currency Hedger helps businesses manage international currency exposure alongside changing commodity-market conditions, allowing companies to consider both the underlying soybean price and the FX component of cross-border transactions.

General market information and analysis provided by Octalas Group on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

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