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Commerzbank’s Thailand section notes May exports rose 10.6% year-on-year, below consensus and sharply slower than April’s 23.1%, with agriculture shipments weak but electronics still resilient. The government forecasts exports to grow 8% in 2026 as front-loading fades. In FX, USD/THB fell 0.2% to 33.35 on strong bond and equity inflows, though THB remains one of Asia’s weakest currencies.
Baht supported by portfolio flows
“Exports surprised to the downside, rising 10.6% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 12.7%) vs 23.1% in April, the weakest in three months. The slowdown was driven by weaker agriculture shipments. It was offset by resilient electronics exports.”
“Manufacturing exports remained firm, rising 14.4% yoy vs 27.5% in April, supported by AI-related demand. Electronics exports rose 32.5% vs 64.6% previously, marking an eighteenth consecutive month of double-digit growth.”
“Agriculture exports contracted 3.1% yoy vs +17.9% in April, reflecting rising regional competition and tighter import restrictions from Indonesia which was imposed in late April. Fuel exports rose 24.2% vs 12.0% in April on elevated crude prices.”
“Imports rose slightly below expectations, increasing 35.1% yoy (Bloomberg consensus: 36.3%) vs 45.0% in April. The May trade deficit narrowed to USD5.7bn (Bloomberg consensus: USD5.5bn) vs USD10bn.”
“Thai government bond yields fell across the curve, led by the long end. The 2Y yield fell 1bps to 1.12% and the 10Y yield fell 4bp to 2.03%. The SET index gained 0.7% yesterday. THB remains the third-weakest performing Asian currency this year. Year-to-date, THB is down 5.5% vs the USD compared to the average for Asian currencies ex-Japan of -3.2%.”
“In FX, USD/THB fell 0.2% to 33.35 yesterday, the first decline in seven sessions. This was driven by firm portfolio inflows as foreign investors recorded net purchase of USD42.9bn in bonds and USD19.8bn in equities.”
