S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Facts:
- The market is currently pricing in a 49% probability of a rate hike in September .
- Major investment banks have raised their year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets , including JPMorgan to 7,800 and Citigroup to 8,100 .
Recommendation: Position: Long US500 at market price
- Take Profit (TP): 7,700
- Stop Loss (SL): 7,430
Opinion: Investors are currently pricing in between one and two rate hikes by the end of 2026 , with roughly a 49% probability of a September hike , suggesting that a significant amount of monetary tightening is already reflected in market expectations. At the same time, some of the recent inflationary pressures may prove to be temporary. Earlier increases in CPI were driven largely by higher energy and fuel prices, with energy accounting for more than 60% of the monthly CPI increase in May .
Since then, fuel prices have started to decline alongside the correction in crude oil prices. If this trend begins to weigh on upcoming inflation readings, the Federal Reserve may have less justification for an aggressive tightening cycle, allowing equities to benefit from lower bond yields and a reassessment of interest rate expectations. Another key argument supporting a long position is that the US500 bull market continues to be underpinned by exceptionally strong earnings momentum, particularly among artificial intelligence-related companies.
Major investment banks have recently raised their year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets, with JPMorgan forecasting 7,800 and Citigroup projecting 8,100 , citing the resilience of the U.S. economy, strong corporate earnings, and the ongoing AI investment supercycle. This is important because the current rally is being driven not only by expectations of lower interest rates but also by tangible growth in revenues, capital expenditure, and demand for AI infrastructure. For these reasons, the base-case scenario remains a continuation of the US500’s long-term uptrend. The main risks to this outlook include a renewed rise in oil prices, a stronger U.S. dollar, or weaker-than-expected earnings from major Big Tech companies.
