Was Michael Burry wrong? Nebius shares jump 16% after earnings report

Shares in Nebius Group (NBIS.US) soared by over 14–16% in pre-market trading, reaching around $225.30 (having previously closed at $193.23). The key drivers behind this surge were strong second-quarter financial results and a significant upward revision to operational forecasts, which far exceeded market expectations.

The company’s current pre-market share price. Source: Yahoo Finance

What surprised the market the most? (Key figures for Q2)

Nebius demonstrated not only tremendous revenue growth, but above all a massive surge in operating profitability:

• Total revenue: $582.3 million (an increase of +454% year-on-year ), exceeding the analysts’ consensus ($557–$572.75 million).
• Revenue from the AI Cloud segment: $574.9 million (accounting for approximately 98% of the business as a whole; year-on-year growth for the segment exceeded 500%).
• Adjusted EBITDA: $236.2 million – significantly exceeding market estimates of $157.9 million.
• AI Cloud’s Adjusted EBITDA margin: It jumped to 50% (compared with 24% in Q4 2025).
• Annual recurring revenue (ARR): This reached $3 billion at the end of June, representing a sharp increase from the $1.9 billion reported at the end of March.
• Upward revision of capacity forecasts (2026 Guidance): The company has raised its target for contracted power at the end of 2026 from the original >4 GW to 5 GW (a five-fold increase in this figure since August 2025).

Why such an enthusiastic reaction from investors?

The market’s positive reception stems from several key fundamental factors:

1. Pricing power and rising demand for AI infrastructure: Nebius is raising its prices for computing power rentals, capitalising on the huge demand for NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs).
2. Contracts worth billions: In the past quarter, the company secured four landmark AI Cloud contracts , each with an average value of over $1 billion . The total value of contracts secured increased almost fourfold compared with the previous quarter.
3. Financial security (Prepayments): Around 70% of the contracts signed during this period included prepayments from customers, which cover between 50% and 60% of the associated capital expenditure (CapEx).
4. Business confidence: The fact that the company has maintained its full-year forecasts for 2026 and is continuing to expand its infrastructure shows that it is consolidating its leading position in the so-called neoclouds sector.

Market Crash: The Michael Burry Story and the Spectre of a Short Squeeze

The most interesting backdrop to this rally is the recent moves by the legendary investor Michael Burry.

• Burry’s short position: Just a few days before the results were published, Burry disclosed that he had opened a short position in Nebius shares at a price of $211.77 , describing the move as “like shooting fish in a barrel”.
• Potential for a short squeeze: With the short float standing at around 31% , such a strong upward momentum is forcing investors betting on a fall to hastily close their positions (buying back shares from the market), which could create an additional wave of demand and drive the valuation even higher.

If the company’s shares open at their current pre-market levels, they will break above the 50-day EMA and the zone of recent local highs, which could invalidate the recent resistance zones. Source: xStation

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