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- US Dollar Index softens to around 99.70 in Monday’s Asian session.
- Trump said new Iran talks would begin Monday after he called off a planned attack on Iran.
- US NFP data will be in the spotlight on Friday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.70 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY declines amid improved risk sentiment. Traders brace for the release of the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, which will be released later on Monday.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he had called off an attack on Iran and that talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Trump suggested an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be close and added that he would also continue to pursue a path to end Iran’s nuclear program.
Hopes of a breakthrough between Washington and Tehran could undermine a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar against its rivals in the near term.
All eyes will be on the US employment data on Friday. This report could offer some hints on the health of the labor market. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to increase by 91,000 in July, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to rise to 4.3% during the same period. In case of stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could help limit the DXY’s losses.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) held the interest rates unchanged at its July policy meeting last week. Markets have priced in nearly a 64.7% chance of a US rate hike in September, down from about 77% before the July Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Dollar seen under renewed pressure as Fed rate expectations fade
According to analysts at Commerzbank, the Dollar is likely to come back under pressure once tensions with Iran subside, as they judge that the Fed is “unlikely to raise rates as markets have priced in.” In their view, the easing of geopolitical risk would remove a key support for the currency, leaving it more vulnerable to disappointment on the US rate path.
