The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note traded around 4.25% on Wednesday after sliding for two straight sessions, as hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict allayed inflation concerns. The US and Iran are reportedly preparing for a second round of peace talks before the current two-week ceasefire expires, even as heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to amplify global energy risks. Oil prices pulled back sharply, further reducing concerns about inflationary pressures and the need for additional central bank tightening. The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to keep rates unchanged through the year, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noting that rate cuts could be delayed until 2027 depending on how long elevated oil prices persist. Meanwhile, investors are set to watch upcoming data including import and export price indexes, as well as the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index.
