
US natural gas futures fell to $2.84 per MMBtu, though they remained near a four-week high, supported by declining output. Production has trended lower in recent months, as major producers such as EQT have scaled back activity in response to weak spot prices. While earlier mild spring weather enabled stronger-than-usual storage injections, the recent drop in production, along with cooler conditions and firmer demand, likely narrowed the inventory surplus to around 7% above seasonal norms in the week ended May 1, down from 8% in the previous week. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to remain broadly near normal through May 19, limiting sharp swings in demand. LNG export flows have also softened, averaging 17.4 bcfd so far in May, compared with April’s record of 18.8 bcfd.
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