S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that global risk sentiment has improved as US–Iran diplomacy keeps a ceasefire in place, pushing Brent lower and the US Dollar (USD) softer. BBH expects the energy shock’s worst phase is likely over and sees US Dollar Index (DXY) trading off rate differentials, remaining in its 96.00–100.00 range over coming months, while maintaining a structurally bearish Dollar view.
DXY seen confined to established range
“Financial markets are back in risk-on mode as the US and Iran weigh further negotiations to extend a two-week ceasefire. Brent crude oil prices are down just under $100 a barrel, stocks and bonds are up, while USD is drifting lower against all major currencies.”
“We are sticking to our view that while the energy shock may not be over, the worst is probably behind us. If so, March 30 likely marked the bottom in risk sentiment. That would leave DXY (USD index) trading off rate differentials once again, keeping the currency within its nearly one-year 96.00-100.00 range over the next few months.”
“Structurally, we maintain our long-held bearish USD view because of: (i) fading confidence in US trade and security policy, (ii) worsening US fiscal credibility, and (iii) the ongoing politicization of the Fed.”
