
Wheat futures climbed to around $6.80 per bushel in late July, returning to their highest level since May 20, 2024, as worsening Black Sea tensions and deteriorating crop prospects in fueled supply concerns. Russia restricted access to certain Sea of Azov and Kavkaz ports while continuing strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure, as Ukraine launched drone attacks on warehouses operated by Wildberries. The escalating tensions heightened concerns over grain shipments through the Black Sea, a critical export corridor for two of the world’s largest wheat exporters. Further supporting prices, SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest by 0.7%, citing lower yield expectations in southern regions and reduced spring wheat acreage. Elsewhere, France’s soft wheat production is expected to drop 7.6% this year following heat-wave damage, while US spring wheat conditions deteriorated, with the good-to-excellent rating falling five percentage points from a week earlier.





