Wheat Mixed Despite Another Increase to World Production

The wheat complex was mixed across the three exchanges on Tuesday, with spring wheat holding higher. Chicago SRW futures were fractionally mixed on the day. KC HRW futures also saw fractionally mixed action at the close. MPLS spring wheat was 5 cents higher in the March contract.

USDA published their monthly WASDE report this morning, showing very few changes to the US balance sheet. Stocks were left unchanged at 901 million bushels, as the World Ag Outlook Board left both the supply and demand numbers alone. There was some adjusting amongst the classes, with HRS stocks up 5 mbu and white wheat down 5 mbu. 

On the world front, stock were raised by 3.44 MMT to 274.87 MMT. That came mainly on another 8.92 MMT increase to production, with Canada (+3), Australia (+1), Argentina (+2), the EU (+1.7) and Russia (+1) all seeing a hike. 

A delayed Commitment of Traders report showed managed money trimming 4,520 contracts from their net short in CBT wheat to 70,613 contracts as of 11/4. In KC wheat, speculators were cutting 9,254 contracts from their net short to 42,454 contracts.

European Commission data estimates July 1 through December 7 EU soft wheat exports at 10.16 MMT, as 0.3 MMT lag from the same period last year. Coceral estimates the EU and UK wheat crop at 143.9 MMT for 2026, a 3.6 MMT drop from a year ago if realized. Argentina’s economy minister announced early this morning that wheat export taxes are to be reduced by 2 points to 7.5%. 

Dec 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.36 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.34 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Dec 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.20 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.27, up 1/2 cent,

Dec 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.82 1/2, unch,

Mar 26 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.76 1/4, up 5 cents,

Today Markets